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Umpire Effect On Totals
Published: July 22, 2010
One of the lesser recognized betting techniques in baseball handicapping is the effect an umpire has on the outcome of a game. This by no means suggests that the umpire is fixing the games, yet in the middle of the 1980s sports betting theory on how the umpires effect the total betting line came to fruition.
The best example of the umpire effect on a game is how they call the strike zone. Some home plate umpires have large strike zones while others have smaller ones. As a result, the games can either end up going under the total because the umpire gives the pitcher the calls they need. Or the game can be rather high scoring as the smaller strike zone works to the batters advantage.
This issue was bust construed in 2006 when veteran umpire Mike Everett came under the handicap microscope. A trend in totals betting developed with Everett as he had an overall record of 22 games going over the total with 12 going under. To assure that umpires such as Everett are not having an off year it is important to look at other years they have been home plate umpires.
For example after the large amount of over’s in 2006, Everett came back in 2007 and called 13 games over the total and 18 under the total. As well in 2006 23 other umpires saw 60 percent of their games go over the total, yet 14 of them saw a direct decrease in totals going over in 2007.
However, if Northbet.com bettors wagered on a repeat in 2006 results in 2007, they would have won 279 wagers while losing 283. This suggests that the occurrence of an umpire calling higher totals in back to back years is quite rare, because pitchers make adjustments to get the calls they want from the umpires the next time they have them.
