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NFL Point Differential System
Published: July 22, 2010
When betting on the NFL most hardcore fans will try to create their own systems. One of the most time consuming football betting systems in the world is the point differential system. In essence the goal of the system is to include the overall average of points for and against for the road team leading up to their specific game. As a result, fans are able to get a more concrete idea of how the road team is likely to perform in the upcoming game.
Here is a look at the Cincinnati Bengals who are the road team this week in a game against the Cleveland Browns. Going into the game the Bengals have accumulated 104 points for and 150 against through six games. After dividing points for and against by six we determine that the Bengals have averaged 17.33 points for and 25 points against. Here are the steps to the point differential system and how each one works.
1. List all of the Bengals opponents over the last six weeks and their points for and allowed per game.
Week 1: Vs. Steelers 22.33 – 20.5
Week 2: Vs. Dolphins 18.5 -20.33
Week 3: Vs Jets 23 -17.83
Week 4: Vs Packers 18.83 – 17
Week 5: Vs Lions 26 – 18.16
Week 6: Vs. Ravens 16.33 – 19.17
2. Add up all the totals for both points scored and allowed and divide each by six.
Points Scored: 22.33+18.5+23+18.83+18.16+16.33= 125.17 / 6 = 20.86
Points Allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17 = 110.83 / 6 = 18.47
3. Divide Cincinnati’s points scored average by the points allowed total average
Points scored / points allowed = 17.33/18.47 = 0.94
Essentially this tells us that the Bengals offense operates at a 94 percent success rate to that of the league average.
4. Divide the average of the Bengals points allowed by the total average of points scored by their opponents
Points allowed / points scored = 25 /20.86 = 1.19
The league average defense operates at 1 percent for points allowed, however Cincinnati’s defense is operating at 19 percent worse than the league average.
