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Baseball’s Beaten Favorites
Published: July 22, 2010
With the longest regular season in professional sports, Major League Baseball teams have a tendency to coast for stretches. For the longest time a division such as the National League Central could be won by the end of June. From there a team such as the St. Louis Cardinals, who had won the division, could glide through the season. For fans betting on their games, they would end up disappointed because when the Cardinals were the favorite they would occasionally lose. Here is a look at when to bet on favorites who have been beaten in a series.
There are two types of predictions made when betting on favorites, when they are beaten. First is when the team favored loses a game and appears to not be trying. Second is when the favorite that was beaten the night before comes back the next night and goes all out to win the game.
Studies have shown that over a six year span in which favorites on the money line at -200 or higher, have lost the opening game of a series, tend to come back with an extra effort in the following game. They have amassed a record in that span of 514-295 in the second game. This study has only worked for teams that are not in the same division.
When teams in the same division play, the theory is that the favorite will win the first game more often because of how close the given divisional race is. Nevertheless, teams that lost as favorites at -200 in the first game have been well worth the risk for bettors as they have come back to win the second game at a 63 percent win margin. In essence even though the favorite may coast to start a series, nothing wakes up a sleeping giant like losing.
