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Home Underdogs Are Smart Play
Published: June 15, 2010
World Cup betting players are watching the ultimate home underdog right now as South Africa isn’t earning much faith from the sportsbooks, but they used their home crowd to take a surprising draw in their opening match. In the NFL, it’s rare that a team will be a home underdog, but if you find one, it’s usually a good play.
Cincinnati was the underdog that everyone wanted to ride last year as the Bengals were 7-2 ATS as an underdog. They were a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog, beating Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Chicago.
A third of the league finished with a record of 6-2 SU at home last season, which is why you’re not going to find very many home underdogs. It has to be a matchup of teams who are relatively close in the standings, like Cincinnati/Pittsburgh. It also has to be good teams: 90% of the time, a bad home team will always get the benefit of the doubt over a bad road team. The home team has to be playing a team that is somewhat successful on the road, or even a team that has had success at that particular team’s stadium. For example, the Steelers’ 23-20 loss to the Bengals last year was their first in nine trips to Cincinnati, so the Bengals were always going to be the underdog in that matchup, and they were a 3-point underdog. So if you can find a decent ‘dog at home during this upcoming NFL betting season, jump all over it.
