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NBA Betting Tips – Conference Semi-Finals
Published: May 4, 2010
San Antonio should cook at home
Sports betting experts would be well advised to make the San Antonio Spurs a favorite when coach Gregg Popovich’s team hosts the Phoenix Suns for Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. San Antonio eliminated Phoenix from the postseason in 2005, 2007 and 2008, losing only twice on its home court. One of those two losses – in 2005 – came at a time when the Spurs were leading the Suns three games to none. Basically, when San Antonio and Phoenix play a meaningful postseason game in the Alamo City, the Spurs come out on top. Why should San Antonio be such a solid home favorite in Games 3 and 4? Basically, the Suns thrive in an up-tempo game, and at home, it’s a lot easier for the Spurs to get the slow tempo they want. This blunts Steve Nash’s effectiveness and puts more pressure on Phoenix’s unproven role players. San Antonio at home is the best value of the whole second round.
Orlando should be pushed the least
If you follow NBA betting religiously, you should know that the Atlanta Hawks, of all the teams remaining in the playoffs, have the worst profile around. Atlanta is a volatile collection of up-and-down players who can’t be trusted from one night to the next. The Hawks give away lots of possessions and frequently display a very soft and tentative identity to the rest of the basketball community. Josh Smith – who performed like an All-Star during the regular season – went AWOL in the first round against the Milwaukee Bucks. Atlanta also lost three straight games to that very same Milwaukee team, which lacked anything close to a true low-post presence following the late-season injury of Australian star Andrew Bogut. The Hawks simply show no signs of being able to win their East semifinal series against Orlando. What makes the matchup worse for Atlanta is the fact that the Magic swept Charlotte in this first round, even while Dwight Howard sat on the bench for much of the series. Just imagine what will happen to Atlanta if Howard stays on the floor. It won’t be pretty. Trust the Magic to produce the second round’s shortest series.
Celtics-Cavs should go the distance, or at least six
After seeing Game 2 of the Boston-Cleveland series on Monday night, it seems hard – if not downright impossible – to think that one team could close down the Eastern Conference semifinal in just five games. A six-game series is a virtual certainty. Moreover, given the up-and-down inconsistency of both clubs in two uneven contests at Quicken Loans Arena, it would appear that another split is likely for Games 3 and 4 at TD Garden in Boston. It’s worth remembering that the Celtics went just 24-17 at home during the regular season. Yes, Boston was a better road team than it was at home in 2010, so it’s not as though coach Doc Rivers’ club has suddenly acquired a clear-cut advantage as the series shifts to New England. It would be wise, from a betting perspective, to stay away from Game 3 and then bet on the trailing team in Game 4. Assuming the series is 2-2 after four games, bet on Cleveland in Game 5 and go from there.
